Is James Nelson a Pollyanna?

Mr. Nelson, a partner and managing director at Massey Knakal, believes too much is being made of the tribulations in the city’s sexy, trophy-tower, over-$100 million investment sales market. And too little is being made of the relatively healthy, yet decidedly less glam, more modestly priced market in which his firm specializes.

“As far as the percentage of properties that sell under $100 million is concerned, there are so many more sales,” he said. An obvious, yet oft-overlooked, point.

“Clearly everyone’s been following the Macklowe properties,” Mr. Nelson said, referring to recent trophy-tower transactions that included the record sale of the GM Building. “A lot of these properties selling for the $50 million-and-under range are less flashy,” Mr. Nelson said. “The buyers are local operators. They’re press shy. They want to keep a low profile.”

But, said Mr. Nelson, they matter more than the big guys. And they’re still trading.

Mr. Nelson said that in the first quarter, contract executions market-wide, including every borough but Staten Island, have dropped “only” 21 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007, while sales values have held steady.

To underscore how much the market over $100 million skews the numbers, Mr. Nelson pointed out that if the rest of the year resembles the first quarter, the market will be off 60 percent compared to last year. But when you remove the over-$100-million set, the market will only be off about 32 percent.

Indeed, if anything, buyers in Mr. Nelson’s submarket are complaining that inventory is too low. At the start of ’07, his firm had 790 exclusive listings. One year later, it had 719. Mr. Nelson attributes the drop to fear.

And, unlike the trophy-tower market, the scarcity of debt is less of an issue.

“Ultimately, there are more buyers who can write a check for $5 to $25 million that have kept the $100 million and under sales market alive,” wrote Mr. Nelson in an essay on the subject to be distributed later this month. “The strength of this segment of the market should hopefully keep the NYC real estate market afloat.”

drubinstein@observer.com