What Pawlenty Can't Do for John McCain
Glance at practically any public analysis of John McCain’s vice presidential options and you’ll find the name of Tim Pawlenty mentioned prominently. The 47-year-old second-term Minnesota governor is, supposedly, at or near the top of McCain’s shortlist.
There is certainly some logic to this. First, Pawlenty is loyal – he sided with McCain early and unflinchingly stuck with him last summer, when everyone else in the world seemed to give up on him – and McCain likes loyalty. Second, Pawlenty would balance McCain’s advanced age and maverick streak with (relative) youthfulness and more appeal to the Republican base.
Plus, he’d offer the chance to pick up Minnesota, a state that the G.O.P. fell just three points short of winning in 2004 and where their convention will be held this summer, and to make inroads with those “white working-class” voters in industrial states who are supposed to be so cool toward Barack Obama. Pawlenty, after all, has been arguing for some time for the G.O.P. to reach out more to Sam’s Clubs and less to country clubs.
The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber wrote recently of the Minnesotan’s “proletarian chic,” nicely capturing a scene in which the governor was given a hero’s welcome in a dimly lit bar populated by women with faded tattoos. Pawlenty, Scheiber wrote, “has genuine appeal among working-class voters, which could come in handy if the election turns into a contest for downscale Rust-Belters.”
But it’s important to keep a couple of things in mind about Pawlenty’s appeal. His two statewide victories in Minnesota have been paper-thin, and both times he’s finished with well under 50 percent of the vote. Minnesota was close in ’04, but polls now show Obama running away with the state. It’s doubtful that Pawlenty’s presence would deliver Minnesota or any other Rust Belt states. And his ability to handle himself in small, folksy settings may be real, but this is not how mass opinion is formed. If Pawlenty were tapped for McCain’s ticket, relatively few voters would ever meet him in person. Instead, they would meet him through television, and on television Pawlenty looks, sounds and acts like a generic, uninspiring and thoroughly forgettable politician.
Just yesterday, in what amounted to an informal audition for McCain’s No. 2 slot, Pawlenty gave a flat performance on ABC’s This Week, where he was paired against Democratic Representative Rahm Emanuel in a dueling-surrogates segment. Pawlenty was faithful to the McCain’s campaign’s message of the week – that Barack Obama, unlike McCain, has never risked the ire of his own party in pursuing his political principles – but there was nothing distinct or memorable about his presentation. His arguments, his tone, his cadence and even his attempts at humor (“The Obama and Hillary Clinton rally shouldn’t have been in Unity, New Hampshire – it should have been in “Political Expediency, New Hampshire!”) were utterly formulaic.
Most voters will probably think about McCain’s vice presidential candidate only three times: when McCain announces his choice, when the VP candidate addresses the Republican convention, and during the VP debate in the fall.
So what value would Pawlenty add to the ticket? His first opportunity for publicity – when McCain announces the pick – would be a wasted venture because no one (outside of Minnesota) knows Pawlenty and there’s nothing dramatic in his background (he’s spent his life in Minnesota politics). He’ll come across as another late-middle-aged politician with talking points.
Nor would Pawlenty be likely to excel in his convention speech or in the fall debate, the other two occasions when he’d be in position to sway mass opinion. As his appearance on ABC on Sunday showed, and as just about all of his appearances elsewhere have shown this year, he is a competent speaker and debater, fully capable of delivering exactly the kind of performance that voters would expect from someone who strikes them as a generic politician. Lloyd Bentsen, the Democrats’ ’88 VP pick, used his debate with Dan Quayle to transform himself from a generic-seeming politician into a player in his own right. There’s been little to suggest that we can suggest any such transformation from Pawlenty, who struggled to stand out on Sunday against Rahm Emanuel.
Otherwise, there really aren’t many chances for VP candidates to connect with the public. Sure, they travel extensively in the fall, but the value of their campaigning is limited. They speak to rooms full of supporters, and their campaign appearances are generally limited to a few quick stump-speech sound bites on local newscasts. Like Bill Clinton in this year’s primary campaign, they tend to be noticed only if and when they trip up.
This would all be fine if McCain were in a position of strength, running ahead of Obama in polls and with the political wind at his back. But he is not. In fact, his position seems to be worsening by the week. Not only has Obama opened a solid and steady lead in national and key state polls, there are also clear signs of Democratic inroads – at the presidential and Congressional levels – in states that have been penciled into the G.O.P. column for decades. Moreover, Obama is making an unprecedented investment in a mobilization drive aimed at increasing participation from his most loyal supporters, young and black voters. If it succeeds, the electoral battleground will radically expand.
Increasingly, the choice of a running mate is shaping up as a vital opportunity for McCain to score headlines and to redirect some excitement – among the media and among voters – from Obama’s campaign to his. Choosing Pawlenty won’t accomplish this. Pawlenty is a safe choice. He’d help keep peace with the G.O.P. base and his generic competence wouldn’t alarm swing voters in the fall, but he’d generate no buzz.
McCain is going uphill in this race. He doesn’t need a running mate who won’t hurt him. He needs one who will help.
Isn't McCain's best choice a white woman? Sarah Palin, maybe?
Melancholy Korean: No. Reason being that it's too obvious a ploy for a certain demographic. He's already over-reached with his ploy to attract the ex-clinton voters, and the undecided ones are only interested in Clinton as President, not a Woman on the tail-coats of a male (and why Kathleen Sebelius isn't being considered a serious VP option for Obama despite her awesome credentials).
The key to picking a VP is to not play with fire. Something that could explode in your face is always avoided for something that is a sure-thing.
Ah, well, that makes sense. But someone like SP would certainly score some headlines!
Dukakis NEEDED someone like Benson to make up for his own weaknesses. Other than embarrassing an overwhelmed Dan Quayle, the Benson pick was a failure - he couldn't even deliver his home state of TX.
Unlike Dukakis, McCain has fundamentally strong message to deliver. But McCain's modesty gets in the way of the message. He doesn't need a "gimmicky VP candidate." What he needs is someone who can deliver the "McCain as a hero and a maverick-reformer message." He needs a VP candidate who can stay on message, be articulate, not screw up and arrive on day one with no baggage." I've read a fair amount of "Pawlenty as potential VP" stories. I'm struck by the fact that the only argument against him is that he's too bland or in your words, "flat." I keep thinking that with all this press "vetting" someone might come up a better argument. The guy seems bright and as you point out, is a "competent speaker and debater." The Democratic state that brought us Wellstone, Mondale and Humphrey keeps electing this conservative Republican. He must have something going for him.
Lessons of History. If your VP pick cannot deliver his home state --- you will lose the election. Romney cannot deliver Mass but can deliver Utah.
What Gov. Pawlenty has going for him is that he is both competent, and basically a decent person, respectful to friends and adversaries alike. Like Collin Peterson (D-MN7), or Norm Coleman (R-MN) - Norm, like me, is a former New Yorker - or any of the more famous Minnesota politicians, Pawlenty evinces that quality known as "Minnesota nice." Minnesotans manage to have the best schools, the longest life expectancy, and the fewest uninsured, and not to brag about it, either. Very nice.
What was wrong with just saying a 'woman' instead of a white woman?
Your racist or what??
Finally. This is the first intelligent article I've read on T-Paw.
Tim is a very smart, nice guy but he is like diet vanila. He is so plain you literally don't notice he's govenor until a bridge collapses or something.
Picking a charismatically-challenged while man from Minnesota would end McCain's campaign. If he goes this route just put a fork in him. McCain already has his hands full with Obama's mega-watt charisma. he doesn't need to make it worse.
White woman because I meant a white woman. To get the Hill-Billy supporters. I mean, I like Condi Rice, but she's tainted by the war, and yes, her race would unfortunately be a harder sell in our party.
Are you being ironic? This is how politics works. "Minnesota nice," the Mormon Romney delivering Utah, Benson from Texas--Veeps are chosen not only for their qualifications, but for who they will appeal to--people like voting for someone they're comfortable with. If that's racist, maybe it is, I don't know, I'm sorry.
I watched the video stream of This Week and saw it completely different. Pawlenty mopped the floor with Emmanuel. I kind of felt sorry for poor old Rahm. Pawlenty constently crucified the poor fellow with facts and Emmanuel had to obviously squirm through this. It was almost kind of painful to watch. Emmanuel could never address the substance of any of Pawlenty's arguments. The only thing he could throw back at Pawlenty was fluff. All Rahm he could do is sugar-coat a terd, and I think he knew he was doing that before he went on the show that he was doing that, but in the end it's still a terd. For Pawlenty, it's 2-0 so far and a solid victory for the informed. It's just too bad that the informed are vastly outnumbered by the uninformed which means an Obama victory in the general election. Then start kissing more of your freedoms good-bye as we complete our transfomation to a Marxist Stalino-Facist state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/veep_watch/
RealClearPolitics Veep Watch
RCP Staff
June 20, 2008
Debating Pawlenty
After making the case for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty yesterday, Chris Cillizza makes the case against him today - which boils down to the following:
1) he isn’t well known nationally
2) he has a weak political organization (he couldn’t even deliver the state for McCain on Feb 5th)
3) he doesn’t appeal to a natural Republican constituency like Evangelicals (who favor Huckabee) or fiscal conservatives (who favor Romney)
Cillizza doesn’t mention that Pawlenty survived in 2006 by the skin of his teeth, winning only 47% of the vote. He trailed in the polls just before election, and was saved from being a one and done Governor thanks to a meltdown by his DFL opponent Mike Hatch.
Regardless, it’s debatable whether Minnesota will be within McCain’s reach with or without Pawlenty on the ticket.
Pawlenty bombed yesterday. Whether or not you think Emanuel makes good points intellectually, he kicks ass politically, and did so on ThisWeek.
Obama supporters are hoping McCain is dumb enough to run with Sarah Palin. This one tipped his hand by bringing up "white women." And what is it with North Koreans loving The Big O?
McCain needs a friendly, middle-aged working class policy wonk from the Midwest. It makes him seem more in touch with domestic concerns and provides a sharp contrast to Obama's exotic background. It makes American voters who might be leaning toward Obama feel more comfortable and open up to McCain.
As for the polls, the GE has barely started. Obama just enjoyed a bounce from being declared his party's nominee, but that lead is already evaporating in swing states. McCain has been visiting Latin America, making inroads with Hispanic voters, and was also in Canada. When Obama goes on his first visit to the Middle East in almost three years and a trip to Europe, he will lose the home advantage, and you'll see that in the polls, as well.
Just trying to help McCain out. But nice to see racism and sexism alive and well in our party. Attaboy!
The Big O will clean up this election. The Dems, no matter how hard they try, and boy, they're trying with this housing bailout bill, they won't lose this one. Forcing Obama to the center is the best choice we have; by "we" of course I mean conservatives who would rather have reform of capitalism than rampant populist revolution, and who don't like war and in fact prefer "conserving" our resources for real threats. Plus, I like the whole elitism thing. Knowledge is usually better than ignorance, despite Bush's hilarious '01 commencement speech in New Haven.
North Korean! God, so clever!
I like Rusty's comments above, yet, I cannot help but tell myself that Pawlenty is a modern Calvin Coolidge. The academic reasons such as cannot deliver his home state have already been mentioned. He does not seem to have a wonkish grasp of policy or the charisma (at least on tv) to add anything new to the ticket and energize the party. Jindal or Palin fit that bill!
McCain's best choice by far .... the one that would win him the election .... would be Colin Powell. I don't think that there's a political figure on the national scene who is as universally respected as Gen. Powell. Should anything happen to McCain as president, I would feel 100% comfortable with Powell taking over, and I would love to see him as the GOP's presidential candidate in 2012.
Janet Palin would also be a good choice, as would Mitt Romney.
I agree with the author that Pawlenty doesn't do anything to add a "WOW!" factor to McCain's campaign which he really needs. Same for Bobby Jindal and Charlie Crist.
As for Condoleeza Rice, I think she'd ba a great pick too, but at the same time I wonder if she'd be perceived as too closely tied to the Bush administration.
But McCain/Powell would be the dream ticket for me.
utah is not in play stupid.
Palin would actually not be a gimmick pick (and who I am all for).
There is an important thing to remember. A VP is not going to win this election for him. The most important thing McCain can do with his VP pick is to spotlight the next generation of Republican (which also helps his age issue).
The two most up and coming Republicans are Jindal and Palin. Jindal shouldn't be VP because he can do more to help the party by showing it can effectively govern by cleaning up the mess in LA (Bush and Congress destroyed the image of effective Republican government on a national level).
Palin is a large reformer, young, family valued and has the highest approval ratings of any politician in the US.
Palin for VP will help start the process of repairing the image of the Party.
Palin would actually not be a gimmick pick (and who I am all for).
There is an important thing to remember. A VP is not going to win this election for him. The most important thing McCain can do with his VP pick is to spotlight the next generation of Republican (which also helps his age issue).
The two most up and coming Republicans are Jindal and Palin. Jindal shouldn't be VP because he can do more to help the party by showing it can effectively govern by cleaning up the mess in LA (Bush and Congress destroyed the image of effective Republican government on a national level).
Palin is a large reformer, young, family valued and has the highest approval ratings of any politician in the US.
Palin for VP will help start the process of repairing the image of the Party.
my gut is that powell's going to endorse barack obama. he may stay "neutral," but there's zero chance he joins mccain. your dream is just that, a dream. I would like to see a strong executive woman like carly fiorina or meg whitman.
Utah is not in play nor is most of red america. Watching Governor Pawlenty on t.v. he seriously looks like a small town mayor and I mean this in the worst way. He had no charisma, no fight, no sense of mission and this year we need a barn burner with a story. Too bad Jindal wonked out. As a die hard republican I would now prefer either Romney, Palin, or Ridge.
This article is ridiculous and clearly written by someone who simply doesn't like Pawlenty (or is secretly rooting for someone else). He mentions that Pawlenty is solid but doesn't stand out. What is that supposed to mean? A real dunce would stand out. Kornacki goes on to mention Lloyd Benstin in the '88 VP debate. Perhaps he should recall that Dukakis/Benstin lost that election.
Here and facts, any disagreement will get you a slap with a wet noodle (Pawlenty)
1) Colin Powell - Assured Victory
2) Condi Rice - Qualified-Black-Southern-Woman with Russian expertise.
Duh. Besides, she could distance herself from Bush with two
good speeches.
3) Bobby Jindal - Don't risk tarnishing him with a loss. Though he would be good.
4) Sarah Palin - She would shake it up and would attract conservatives, Christians
and working class whites like fat to a housecats butt.
5) Romney - Might bring the death blow to the D's with Michigan, Colorado
and pennsylvania.
6) Thune - The dark horse.
I was a bit surprised to find that Minnesota is firmly attached to the "rust belt". I guess I alway thought that the rust belt ran from Pitsburgh to Chicago. We don't have any rusting steel mills or other heavy industries that I am aware of in the Twin Cities most of our industry is high tech stuff grain milling and agrabusiness like 3M, Medtronic, Honeywell, General Mills, Conagra, etc. Out side of the Twin Cities and Duluth this is an agricutural state. As for our Tim Pawlenty, McCain is welcome to him. The author is right however that Minnesota won't be a red state this year. Obamamania has cought on big time in Minneapolis and we will set a new record for turnout and run about 85% for Obama and Obama will leave the city with a huge lead which will crush McCain in the state.
Lookit, the me-too people think you can take a Governor who was a mere beauty contestant (true!) in a state with far less people than the city of Portland Oregon and who has been governor for less than two full years! Yah, like that really makes a President! Carly Fiorina can think miles around Sarah Pallin and she knows how to run huge corporations and think globally in a clear articulation of what the free enterprise system is for the 21st century. See her at Flora TV online and put her in the search engine. Hewlett Packard itself was bigger than Alaska, for God's sake. And Carly has been all over the world, and already worked closely with John McCain and he really likes her. Her vision kept HP into PCs and Now they are ready to knock out Dell and be the only real alternative to IBM. She answers questions as well if not better than Prime Minister Stephen Harper. She never puts her foot in her mouth. Her smarts make Pallin look like Disney's Mouseketeers! And Carly is keen on entreprenuership - rallying women and young people into the 21st century, with the latest knowledge and experience in the high tech world and the innovation and R & D that can make America strong again. She could turn out like Margaret Thatcher because she knows how to most sincerely articulate a conservatism that represents the future.
Lookit, the me-too people think you can take a Governor who was a mere beauty contestant (true!) in a state with far less people than the city of Portland Oregon and who has been governor for less than two full years! Yah, like that really makes a President! Carly Fiorina can think miles around Sarah Pallin and she knows how to run huge corporations and think globally in a clear articulation of what the free enterprise system is for the 21st century. See her at Flora TV online and put her in the search engine. Hewlett Packard itself was bigger than Alaska, for God's sake. And Carly has been all over the world, and already worked closely with John McCain and he really likes her. Her vision kept HP into PCs and Now they are ready to knock out Dell and be the only real alternative to IBM. She answers questions as well if not better than Prime Minister Stephen Harper. She never puts her foot in her mouth. Her smarts make Pallin look like Disney's Mouseketeers! And Carly is keen on entreprenuership - rallying women and young people into the 21st century, with the latest knowledge and experience in the high tech world and the innovation and R & D that can make America strong again. She could turn out like Margaret Thatcher because she knows how to most sincerely articulate a conservatism that represents the future.
In 1968, Nixon won even though VP Agnew did not deliver his home state.
Romney would be a solid pick if he were not a Mormon. He's smart, looks like a President, and could help in Michigan, Nevada, NH, and Colorado.
"America's Hottest Governor" just had her fifth baby. I don't know of any conservatives who relish the thought of a VP in a thong or who just had her fifth child. And the oldest child is 18 and one has Downes. Add that to her relative inexperience, and Sarah Palin does not sound like someone who could run for President on her own or take over in an emergency. She is not that compatible with McCain, either, since they both differ on energy policy - she wants to drill in ANWR.
Just because McCain has an extensive military and legislative background does not mean Obama would actually end the war. I'd take McCain's experience, hawk or not, over Obama's ambition.
Since joining Foreign Relations, Obama has missed three meetings on a "new strategy" in Afghanistan, a country he has never visited.
Obama was absent from a January 31 meeting this year, and also was not present for a hearing on Sept. 21, 2006. He did attend a March 8, 2007 hearing on a new Afghanistan strategy.
On Feb. 15, 2007, Obama also missed a committee hearing on U.S. ambassadors to Iraq and Afghanistan.
Once the general voting public wakes up after labor day and starts comparing the two candidates and contrasting their records, Obama will give not look so presidential. We are at war in two countries, and Obama cannot be entrusted with the safety of our armed service personnel or with the running of the federal bureaucracy. McCain just needs a likable wingman who appeals to working class voters, and he can win this fall.
I'm a Democrat and 110% behind Obama. Nevertheless, I like parlor games as much as anybody else, so...
Several of you said no to Palin on the basis of it being a "risky" choice. I think that is the whole point of this article. McCain needs a risky choice. Pawlenty would be the safe choice. The point is if you're two touchdowns behind in the second half, you don't run the ball. You need to throw deep. You might get picked off but hey your going to lose anyway, might as well try to win.
I'm not sure I buy the premise of the question. We'll see closer to the conventions, but I think that Obama has a comfortable lead, but not an overwhelming one. It might not be hail mary time quite yet. But if it is...
Palin is a very high risk/high reward choice. She could easily be seen as Dan Quayle part II. McCain is going to criticize Obama for being inexperienced and then nominate the gov of one of the smallest states, who was mayor of an 8000 person town two years ago?? Its an enormous risk, but it would be very flashy. I say if you think its hail mary time, go for it.
The other big flash: Lieberman.
Lieberman would be very popular with moderates. McCain could send a strong signal that he is serious about moderate bipartisanship. Here you have got to hope that all the conservatives are really going to hold their noses. Lieberman is pro-choice and a real Democrat on everything except foreign policy (mainly Iraq). There is no doubt there would be open revolt among the Rush Limbaugh wing of the party. Will they vote for you anyway? Its a gamble but I think most would. If its really hail mary time, remember you aren't winning without independents and Dems and you need to upset conservatives to get them.
In some ways, I would love this pick because I think that it would have the potential to send Republicans into a 20 year civil war. It would also have the potential to win a come from behind race this year.
I guess it all depends on where things stand a month from now. I agree it comes down to a play-it-safe vs go-deep approach. We'll see where McCain is at on judgement eve.
I like Gov. Tim Pawlenty, but he will not deliver this state for McCain. That's pretty much conventional wisdom up here. Any D-list celebrity gets the democrats and "independents" all excited. Obama fits that mold and the gomers here will continue to vote without thinking.